U.S. Shutdown Halts Key Data, All Eyes Now on Friday’s CPI Report

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth week, paralyzing most major economic reports as agencies like the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau suspend operations. With critical data on jobs, retail sales, and housing frozen, market participants are left navigating uncertainty.

September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), set for release on October 24, emerges as the lone beacon of clarity. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the figure under a limited exemption, offering the Federal Reserve its sole hard data point before its next policy decision. Analysts at QCP Capital note that a monthly CPI print NEAR 0.2% could bolster soft-landing expectations.

JPMorgan’s chief economist Michael Feroli captures the zeitgeist: 'Policymakers are operating in near darkness.' The absence of sequential data transforms Friday’s release into a market-moving event, with implications for risk assets across traditional and crypto markets alike.